A Multi Input Single Output (MISO) NARMAX model is used to provide a two day ahead forecast of the electron flux. The inputs to the model are the daily averaged solar wind parameters. It should be noted that the two day ahead forecast will change as more data is obtained for the current day.
Real time solar wind data from ACE and electron flux data from GOES 13, both provided by the Space Weather Prediction Center, are used to compute the model output (red), which is compared to the measured electron flux (blue).
The electron flux value at a specific time is the average of the past day. For example, an electron flux value recorded at 04.05.2012 is the average electron flux between 00:01 UTC 03.05.2012 and 00:00 UTC 04.05.2012.
The electron flux value forecast for two days ahead is calculated from input data averaged between 00:01 UTC and present hour on the current day. For example, at 08:00 UTC 04.05.2012, the input value recorded for 05.05.2012 will be the average value between 00:01 UTC 04.05.2012 and 08:00 UTC 04.05.2012. This input value is updated every hour, as more data becomes available for the current day, until the end of the day when the input value is set.
Data gaps in the solar wind data are indicated by missing points in the figures.