PROGRESS NARMAX Electron Flux Forecasts

PRediction Of Geospace Radiation Environment and Solar wind parameterS

Caution: PROGRESS test web site

Results

Geomagnetic indices
Electron flux forecasts
- Periods
  - 10d
  - 30d
  - 90d
  - 200d
  - 1y
- Energies
  - 2 MeV
  - 800 keV
  - 475 keV
  - 275 keV
  - 150 keV
  - 75 keV
  - 40 keV
IMPTAM
- IMPTAM parameters
- Fields
- Species
  - Electrons
  - Protons
  - He⁺
  - O⁺
- Satellites
  - GOES 15
  - Galileo
  - Van Allen
  - LEO
VERB
- VERB RB forecast
- VNC RB forecast
Statistical wave models

VERB Radiation Belt Nowcast and Forecast

VERB RB forecasts — Two-day radiation belt forecast of 1 MeV electrons using the data-assimilative VERB code, real-time Van Allen Probe, ACE, and GOES data. Kp index for the previous 7 days are obtained from GFZ recent and previous month nowcast. 3-day Kp forecast is obtained from the Space Weather Prediction Center. Forecasts are conducted automatically every hour at GFZ. Version 2.0 of the code computes the nowcast and forecast fluxes from reanalysis directly using the T89 magnetic field model.

Key model publications

Subbotin, D. A., and Y. Y. Shprits (2009), Three-dimensional modeling of the radiation belts using the versatile electron radiation belt (VERB) code, Space Weather, 7, S10001, doi:10.1029/2008SW000452.