Real time forecast of the >2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
Forecast Figures
Next 12 hour Forecast
GOES Comparison
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Past 5 Days
MLT-Time plot
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Past 5 Days
About The Model
A Multi Input Multi Output (MIMO) NARMAX model is used to provide a 1 hour ahead forecast of the electron flux at different MLTs. The inputs to the model are solar wind parameters.
Real time solar wind data from ACE and electron flux data from GOES 13, both provided by the Space Weather Prediction Center, are used to compute the model output (red), which is compared to the measured electron flux (blue).
The electron flux value at a specific time is the average of the past hour. For example, an electron flux value recorded at 10:00:00 UTC 04.05.2012 is the average electron flux between 10:01:00 UTC 04.05.2012 and 10:00:00 UTC 04.05.2012.
Data gaps in the solar wind data are indicated by missing points in the figures.
For more detail on the development of these models see Boynton et al,. [2016].
These models were developed thanks to funding from the Natural Environment Research Council project RADSAT (NE/P017061/1)
Data of the past years model predicted output in a tabular format Compared to GOES.
Data of the past years model predicted output in a tabular format for all MLTs.