Real time forecast of the Dst Index using an IFOR NARMAX model
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Past 5 Days
Real time forecast of the Dst Index using a Bilinear NARMAX model
Forecast Figures
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Past 5 Days
About The Model
An IFOR NARMAX model and a Bilinear NARMAX model are used to provide a one hour ahead forecast of the Dst Index. The inputs to the model are the hourly averaged solar wind parameters.
Real time solar wind data from ACE and DSCOVR are both provided by the Space Weather Prediction Center, are used to compute the model output (red), which is compared to the measured Dst Index data (blue) provided by the World Data Center for Geomagnetism, Kyoto.
The Dst Index value at a specific time is the average of the past hour. For example, a Dst value recorded at 10:00:00 UTC 04.05.2015 is the average Dst between 09:01:00 UTC 04.05.2015 and 10:00:00 UTC 04.05.2015.
Data gaps in the solar wind data are indicated by missing points in the figures.
These models were developed thanks to funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 637302 called PROGRESS
Data of the past years model predicted output using the IFOR NARMAX model in a tabular format.
Data of the past years model predicted output using the Bilinear NARMAX model in a tabular format.