Real time forecast of the 200-350 keV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
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Past 10 Days
About The Model
A Multi Input Single Output (MISO) NARMAX model is used to provide a two day ahead forecast of the electron flux. The inputs to the model are the daily averaged solar wind parameters. It should be noted that the two day ahead forecast will change as more data is obtained for the current day.
Real time solar wind data from ACE and electron flux data from GOES 13, both provided by the Space Weather Prediction Center, are used to compute the model output (red), which is compared to the measured electron flux (blue).
The electron flux value at a specific time is the average of the past day. For example, an electron flux value recorded at 10:00:00 UTC 04.05.2012 is the average electron flux between 10:01:00 UTC 03.05.2012 and 10:00:00 UTC 04.05.2012.
Data gaps in the solar wind data are indicated by missing points in the figures.
For more detail on the development of these models see Boynton et al,. [2016].
These models were developed thanks to funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 637302 called PROGRESS
Data of the past years model predicted output in a tabular format.